DISQUS

Cynics Party: World Financial Markets At a Glance

  • ManchuCandidate · 1 year ago
    But but but the Dow went up 400 points! That means all is well right? Right? Right?

    Of course no one is talking about credit swaps and derivative securities. Some 45-60 TRILLION worth and if they go, we all go.
  • llyn · 1 year ago
    The Escher iIllustration of the world financial markets is just as I have envisioned them, hence my reluctance to become a frequenter of same. However, something is missing from the illustration, and that's the enormous web of deceit enclosing the whole thing.
  • KurtGodel · 1 year ago
    Sec. Paulson is now running the country. Hey Henry, while you're at it, let's get our troops out of Iraq, OK? It would save a lot of money that you could use to bail out Big Capital.
  • rptrcub · 1 year ago
    That's Comrade Paulson as the administration becomes more socialist and interventionist than Clement Attlee or William Beveridge could dream of.
  • JNOV · 1 year ago
    /TJ PG said he can't wait to introduce Talibunny to Washington in what has to be the most lecherous voice I've heard this campaign. Wanna bet he's one of those guys that name their dicks?

    Back to your talk about things I just don't understand. I get that people were given these crazy mortgages that they ultimately couldn't afford due to predatory and straight up crazy lending practices. But I go brain dead when we start talking about the securitization of these mortgages, and blahblahblah investment banks lend $ to companies blahblah. I don't get it.

    If anyone, anyone would like to give me a tutorial in this financial meltdown, and I do understand some of it, I would really be appreciative. I mean, I don't even know what a derivative is, except maybe it's derived from something. And I want to understand -- I refuse to believe that my brain is broken.
  • TonyRamone · 1 year ago
    @KG, Cubbie: I for one am glad to see Pat Paulsen finally getting the leadership chance he has fought for for many years. Oh wait, what?

    BTW, KG, you can thank me later for the Pirates rolling over in extra innings. Although when you have to take the Bucs into extra innings during a pennant race, you're in deep shit for the playoffs.
  • redmanlaw · 1 year ago
    So how do I unblock gravatar? I clicked it on a menu trying to get my grav. to come up and can't find a way to unblock.
  • nabisco · 1 year ago
    Is he alive, can he still feel?

    (testing Nabisco)
  • HAL 9000 (MC) · 1 year ago
    @JNOV

    Here's my attempt.

    A derivative is based on the calculus derivative which is simply the slope of a line or in terms of motion, the speed of an object. These derivative securities (as far as I've understood it) are based on 2nd order derivatives or higher which means (in terms of motion) they measure acceleration/deceleration. In financial terms, these securities make money on the dips and valleys, not the actual growth or value of a stock or market segment. In other words they're betting on random variations of a wave. The problem with these securities is that they're leveraged to the hilt. You only need $1 of real money to get $30-40 worth of securities to get in the game. The whole reason this is scary is that if these securities blow up then you need to pay the 29-39 bucks to cover your losses. Most banks and companies who play in this area don't have the 29-39 bucks to cover their losses which means they have to call in loans or sell capital. This is why that 45.5 TRILLION dollar value scares the shit out of people. How is someone like Citibank going to survive if they suddenly lost 1 TRILLION on the derivatives market? They can't.

    Mortgage securitization was done in the early 70s. Basically, a bank loans money to home owners but that money is tied up till they recoup the principle (the original loan) because of credit restrictions (ie: the maximum amount of money they can loan out vs the amount of actual money in the bank.) To get around this, the bank groups these mortgages into a security. The rate of return on this security is based on the credit rating of the house owners. The better the credit, the better the security. The banks in turn sell it to someone like Fannie Mae/Freddie Mac/ Lehman Bros who in turn sell it to others. The banks take the money from these transactions and turn around to loan this money to others.

    The appeal of these securities is that the rate of return is stable and increases if interest rates increase and can be treated like a bond as one's mortgage payment doesn't really go to the bank but rather the holder of these security.

    The problem is that since 2001, the securities gurus did a bait and switch. They mixed in a bunch of crap subprime mortgages in with the good mortgages while the credit rating companies looked the other way. This helped improve the profitiability (fees and such) but didn't work out when things turned to shit.

    The credit crunch happened when people stopped buying these securities. The banks then lose cash flow and can't pay creditors or interest or payroll. As other financial companies fall into this same trap, they have to call in loans and credit to pay for these things. When they do that, they don't have the money to loan out to companies or people who need it. Then it becomes a gigantic cluster fuck. This is why we (and I mean all of us) are fucked if W (rolls eyes) and his team of idiots who created this mess can't get the financial markets out of this death spiral.

    Legal disclaimer: I am not a member of John McCain's economic team, nor a real economist nor a financial professional. This is only what I've been told and to the best of my understanding. Any fiscal advise you glean from this is strictly from your own head. Ie: PLEASE DON'T SUE!
  • prommy · 1 year ago
    Oh Hal9000, MBAs can't do calculus. Derivatives are just options, futures, and swaps, they are really simple, its just business majors who think they are so mysterious and complicated. They are bets, they are bets on the future price of a security or value of an asset or performance of a business or portfolio or index. I bet it will be up, you bet it will be down, we shake hands on it, thats a derivative contract. Swaps are the only one that its hard for me understand, but I figure they're like bets to be paid in trade and not cash.

    I guess the thing that really must be understood about them is that unlike most investments, and even most bets, in derivatives, it is possible to lose more than you invested. Think about that, I mean, in the normal world, the very worst thing that can happen to you if you bet $100,000 or invest $100,000, is you lose it all, you lose $100,000. But if you buy $100,000 in certain kinds of derivatives, you can lose $1 million.
  • KurtGodel · 1 year ago
    @prommy: leverage works both ways. But with a Repub in the White House, markets only go up, right? Because they understand and respect the free market?

    @TonyRamone: don't think I don't appreciate it, especially after the pounding we took 2 nights ago. I lost out in the playoff ticket lottery, so instead of spending 2 innings in line for a hot dog, and needing to strap on hip waders to get into the men's room late in the game, I'll be watching at home with a cold Negro Modelo, maybe order in some Thai food. Could be worse.
  • Cynica · 1 year ago
    @JNOV: I like to think of it as a giant pyramid scheme, because that's easier than trying to read and understand the explanations. We're the suckers left holding the bag.
    @llyn: You're in it whether you wanted/meant to be or not. Congrats, you're now one of the proud owners of AIG!
  • prommy · 1 year ago
    Socialize losses, privatize profits! Yay!
  • chicagobureau · 1 year ago
    @Cynica: Man. I was holding out to win a controlling stake in WaMu. I'm hearing though that WaMu might be a jackpot promotion at a <strike>riverboat</strike> barge in Northwest Indiana this weekend. Banking industry, here I come!

    (PS: WaMu has a between-inning promotion at Wrigley, complete with the PA cheerily saying the "Whoo hoo!" tagline. Did everything I could to keep from laughing my ass off.)

    (PPS: strike tag is fubar. Any update on what tags do / do not work with Commenting v2.0? And embedding pics / videos?)
  • nojo · 1 year ago
    @cb: No update on when the Commenting Caddy comes back from the shop. Disqus options are limited -- looks like you get bold, italic and links only.
  • prommy · 1 year ago
    Thread Jack! Megan got a huge notice from Salon for her "dating don'ts" post last night at Jezebel, way to go mommy megan, remember us, we knew you before you were famous.
  • SanFranLefty · 1 year ago
    @Prommy: That post of Megan's was freakin' hilarious. Jamie and I shared some of our "dating don'ts" horror stories in there, but my favorite comment was from a gay man who had some of his dating don'ts directed at men: "Don't tell me you're not gay but that you 'just like to fuck men,' that's like saying Bristol Palin isn't pregnant but that she 'just likes to push babies through her vaginal walls.'"
  • rptrcub · 1 year ago
    @SFL: Bristol Palin + vaginal walls = nightmares for rptrcub. Even after having pleasant sex dreams about First Dude McDreamy last night (is that so wrong???)
  • redmanlaw · 1 year ago
    tj/ Black Eagle raiaed 1.7 meelyon dollerz here in New Mexico yesterday.
  • Vladimir Len-nerd · 1 year ago
    JNOV: The way I think about this whole mess is like this:

    One person takes out a mortgage. Simple enough. That mortgage is sold by the bank to someone else, who bundles it with a bunch of other mortgages. Still pretty clear. Now, that third person sells shares of that bundle. That is, some sarariman in Tokyo may own 1/364th of your mortgage, or some retirement fund in Omaha may own all of your mortgage and all of your neighbors' mortgages too.

    This is as far as I bother trying to understand, but the effects even at this relatively simple level are pretty ominous: who owns the problem when I default on my mortgage? Well, we kind of lost track of that information, because it goes well beyond that -- the bundler who's selling shares, in the real world, happens at least a half-dozen times, so that tracing an actual mortgage from "me" to "person who owns the debt" is effectively impossible.

    Now, add into the mix all the financial magic everyone else has been talking about, and start letting the homeowners default on their mortgages in large numbers (which is what's been happening). Suddenly, someone is out 3.25 quadzillion dollars on all these debts that are left hanging by people who are underwater anyway, and stopped caring about their credit rating. Only, we're not sure exactly who.

    The crazy-wacky part comes in when you get companies like AIG, who are insuring this crap. So, they're offering insurance that (effectively) I'm not going to walk away from my loan based on default rates from 10 years ago, when it was just not done to walk away from a debt like that. Only, the rules changed. So they're way overcommitted on their policies, because record-busting numbers of people are hitting the "fuck it" button and moving into a tiny apartment after they realize they really can't afford the McMansion. So suddenly AIG has to pay out on way more policies than they expected, and hey, what? They didn't have that kind of cash on hand!

    The basic problem is the number of people walking away. That problem was caused by dipshits in the banks giving away credit like it was condoms at an AIDS rally, to anyone who knocked on the door looking for directions to the foodbank. It was all golden because markets only go up, right? So you can totally take this interest-only mortgage and just buy off some principal later, when your house value goes up and you can refinance. It all makes perfect sense, wink-wink, nudge-nudge.

    The wink/nudge that doomed us to the Big Shitpile.
  • llyn · 1 year ago
    @ All Whom It May Concern:

    http://www.portfolio.com/interactive-features/2...

    The URL above illustrates graphically how the too-clever-by-half contingent laid the foundations for this debacle. Krugman posted this link on his NYT blog early this year.
  • SanFranLefty · 1 year ago
    @cubbie:
    Yes, it is wrong for you to have First Dude wet dreams. Have you been arguing with Log Cabiners lately?
  • rptrcub · 1 year ago
    @SFL: Yes. Yes I have, even though he swears he's a Dem. A solitary gay PUMA who itches for a 2012 Hillbot run. (If, FSM forbid, Unicorn doesn't get in, I'm not sure that Hillary would have a chance in '12 if Unicorn supporters get bitter at her and blame her for his defeat. I'd be that petty.)
  • Jamie Sommers · 1 year ago
    @SFL: That thread is both hilarious and frightening. There's a couple of straight dudes there now adding the flip side of the coin.

    @RML: Unicorn's peeps are trying so hard to get me to come out to NM to GOTV. Unfortunately, though, I have a mediation and possible short trial that week. Otherwise, i'd be all over that.
  • redmanlaw · 1 year ago
    /breaking - Palin's Favorability Ratings - 21 Pts

    from politicalwire.com:

    Gov. Sarah Palin's favorable/unfavorable ratings have suffered a stunning 21 point collapse in just one week, according to Research 2000 polling. Last week, 52% approved and 35% disapproved of the GOP vice presidential nominee (+17 net). This week, 42% approved and 46% disapprove (-4 net).

    Earlier this week, Newsweek also saw the drop in other polling. "Over the course of a single weekend... Palin went from being the most popular White House hopeful to the least."

    Political Insider: Why Palin was ultimately a bad pick for McCain.

    @ Jamie - tell them I'll take your place.
  • FlyingChainSaw · 1 year ago
    This is urgent. Talibunny needs to do something drastic, radical, even more dementedly pandering than she has already done. She needs to get on TV and eat Condi's snatch and then drive around offering voters a chance to sniff her face if they vote for the theofascist ticket.
  • KurtGodel · 1 year ago
    @Ilyn: plus, there are a gadzillion $ of credit default swaps out there, which are basically bets on whether a bond or loan will default or not. As I understand it, you don't need to have skin in the game to sell these. So, when a shitload of debt goes bad and you need to pay off, you may not have enough capital to make good. It's like a bookie owing a lot of money to the mob. Not good. AIG had a lot of these, as do all the big brokerage houses.
    Rant continues: the short-sellers figured a lot of this out, and as a reward have just seen a lot of their business taken away by the feds. This, you call market capitalism? Paulson is now running the biggest hedge fund in the universe.
  • CheapBoy · 1 year ago
    In a response the current financial shenanigans, the Australian Stock Exchange has banned the practice of "Naked Short Selling".

    I 'spose it takes the hassle out of what to wear in the morning.
  • SanFranLefty · 1 year ago
    @Jamie: What about a continuance? The client should understand, right? like you, I'm in the same boat. It's killing me... I'm getting twice-daily calls and emails to do GOTV in Nevada. I'd much rather go canvass northern N.M. than Reno. I just have to figure out how to get out of work obligations and maybe I'll be in RML's neck of the woods for Dia de los Muertos.
  • prommy · 1 year ago
    Vladimir, I wait patiently and hopefull for the day when you will be Lyn-Nerd Skyn-Nerd, so that I can scream "Play Freebird." I made that up, you know, the tradition of maniacally and frantically screaming "play Freebird" at every band, in every situation. Really, I was the first, at The Shipwheel in Brielle, New Jersey in 1980, now I just have to remember the band.
  • Original Andrew · 1 year ago
    Can you imagine how some of those WH phone calls went?

    …ring…ring…

    HENRY PAULSON: “Dubya? It’s Hank. Yeah, I know you’re trying to watch the playoffs, this’ll just take a sec. I spoke with the insane and evil Star Chamber of foreign central banks, sovereign wealth funds, third-world oil-producing despots and hedge fund managers that actually own the smoking, gang-banged corpse of the American “free-market” financial system to let them know that they’re aahhhlllllll gonna git paid off.

    Yeeesssssiiiirrreee! Big-time cashola! And in euros, too! None of that phony dollar shit.

    Yep, we just need to add another trillion dollars to the national debt.

    Oh and by the way WE’RE ALL COMMUNISTS NOW!”
  • KurtGodel · 1 year ago
    @SFL: my wife is going to Vegas to GOTV. Really -- she doesn't like to gamble. You guys could hang out.

    @Orig Andrew: did you hear W's talk to the press this AM? He sounded like an old drunk stumbling around at the bus station.
  • Original Andrew · 1 year ago
    @ KurtGodel,


    My advanced Bush Derangement Syndrome prevents me from listening to anything that worthless asshole says, lest my fist goes through the TV.
  • prommy · 1 year ago
    NoJo, does ya'll need money to fix the commenting caddy? I'll be glad to send money, set up a credit card "offering" basket, you watch, we'll flood this place with lucre, so you can buy a new Comment Lexus!
  • SanFranLefty · 1 year ago
    @Dodger Kurt: I hate Vegas with a fiery passion. I can tolerate Reno because it's a little scruffier and you can see the trees on the mountain ridges. Plus it's a nice drive through Tahoe and Truckee to get to Reno.
    re: W. I totally think he's hitting the sauce again. The NYT website had a photo from this morning where he was doing his monkey laugh again. If he's not hitting the sauce, then it's the early-onset Alzheimer's showing up.

    Speaking of Alzheimer's, how about McCain's Pain with Spain? WTF?
    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/09/18/mccain...
  • likewow · 1 year ago
    John 'The Alzheimerhoid' McCain is so fucked in the head that the neocons and gangsters that BushCo services won't even bother starting wars and raiding public agencies. They'll just walk straight past the Alzhermerhoid and loot the Treasury wholesale while the Talibunny kneels on the White House lawn babbling with arms outstretched, shrieking at the sky and begging god to deliver the apocalypse he promised.
  • likewow · 1 year ago
    Disqus fucking sucks!
    MOOSECOCK!
    Disqus fucking sucks!
    DOGBALLS!
    Disqus fucking sucks!
    DEAD MONKEY NUTS!
    Disqus fucking sucks!
    Disqus fucking sucks!
    Disqus fucking sucks!
    Disqus fucking sucks!
    Disqus fucking sucks!
    Disqus fucking sucks!
    Disqus fucking sucks!
  • The Goldnerd Variations · 1 year ago
    likewow: there's no use yelling about Disqus, we don't have any power in this situation. Until the Hosting Sadist returns our calls, we're SOL on the situation.
  • Original Andrew · 1 year ago
    @ JNOV & llyn,

    Moe over at Gawker has a breezy and hee-larious, yet highly educational recap here:

    http://gawker.com/5051885/the-financial-crisis-...
  • Original Andrew · 1 year ago
    @ Manchu,


    Dude it's all cool. Comrades Bush, Bernanke & Paulson can just throw the levers on those printing presses to whip up $45 T in a New York sec. Of course, a gallon of milk is gonna cost $43,000 by this time next year courtesy hyperinflation, but whatevs.

    Go team United Socialist States of AmeriKKKa! USSA! USSA!
  • JNOV · 1 year ago
    Thanks, All!
  • SanFranLefty · 1 year ago
    Meanwhile, the unemployment rate in California has jumped to 7.7%....and that doesn't count the people who have given up job-hunting.
  • rptrcub · 1 year ago
    I think with the "discouraged," it's like 7.something nationwide, which means its probably 8-9 in California. In Ga. we're only 6.3, but we're usually lower than the national average (6.1). Meanwhile, they'll continue to vote against their own interests here unless there is an active job to suppress the votes of stupid white people (I'll sign up for that).
  • JNOV · 1 year ago
    @nojo: your Escher made the Maddow show tonight. Coincidence? Great minds? Or a super-secret audience...
  • nojo · 1 year ago
    @jnov: wha-wha-whaaaaaaa?

    Don't know what to say about that -- Escher is certainly a go-to artist for folks like myself, and folks like myself tend to populate the staffs of these shows. But under the circumstances, this was something of a non-obvious play.

    I'll say coincidence for now, but it's an eyebrow-raiser.
  • Harry Houdinerd · 1 year ago
    nojo: your prescience is getting to be a habit.
  • redmanlaw · 1 year ago
    You never see Noj and Nostrodamus together in the same place .

    Disquis is our shortwave, our taps on the pipes in prison . . .
  • CheapBoy · 1 year ago
    We here in Australia thank the USSA for pouring buckets of Rubles, I mean US dollars, into nationalising the the free markets.

    Our Pacific Peso is not going to go tits up and reduce us to eating our children and the crippled.
  • nojo · 1 year ago
    15-42-27-28-5-11

    Just testing.
  • fried · 1 year ago
    nojo, jnov
    've noticed the same thing.
    i have heard lines on the daily show ripped diectly from our comments. coincidence? raised my eyebrows to hear one of my comments.
    great minds alike and all that, or we really are mined?
  • fried · 1 year ago
    prommy, my fave thing to yell is " whipping post"!!
    to any band. and especially at the opera.