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Of course no one is talking about credit swaps and derivative securities. Some 45-60 TRILLION worth and if they go, we all go.
Back to your talk about things I just don't understand. I get that people were given these crazy mortgages that they ultimately couldn't afford due to predatory and straight up crazy lending practices. But I go brain dead when we start talking about the securitization of these mortgages, and blahblahblah investment banks lend $ to companies blahblah. I don't get it.
If anyone, anyone would like to give me a tutorial in this financial meltdown, and I do understand some of it, I would really be appreciative. I mean, I don't even know what a derivative is, except maybe it's derived from something. And I want to understand -- I refuse to believe that my brain is broken.
BTW, KG, you can thank me later for the Pirates rolling over in extra innings. Although when you have to take the Bucs into extra innings during a pennant race, you're in deep shit for the playoffs.
(testing Nabisco)
Here's my attempt.
A derivative is based on the calculus derivative which is simply the slope of a line or in terms of motion, the speed of an object. These derivative securities (as far as I've understood it) are based on 2nd order derivatives or higher which means (in terms of motion) they measure acceleration/deceleration. In financial terms, these securities make money on the dips and valleys, not the actual growth or value of a stock or market segment. In other words they're betting on random variations of a wave. The problem with these securities is that they're leveraged to the hilt. You only need $1 of real money to get $30-40 worth of securities to get in the game. The whole reason this is scary is that if these securities blow up then you need to pay the 29-39 bucks to cover your losses. Most banks and companies who play in this area don't have the 29-39 bucks to cover their losses which means they have to call in loans or sell capital. This is why that 45.5 TRILLION dollar value scares the shit out of people. How is someone like Citibank going to survive if they suddenly lost 1 TRILLION on the derivatives market? They can't.
Mortgage securitization was done in the early 70s. Basically, a bank loans money to home owners but that money is tied up till they recoup the principle (the original loan) because of credit restrictions (ie: the maximum amount of money they can loan out vs the amount of actual money in the bank.) To get around this, the bank groups these mortgages into a security. The rate of return on this security is based on the credit rating of the house owners. The better the credit, the better the security. The banks in turn sell it to someone like Fannie Mae/Freddie Mac/ Lehman Bros who in turn sell it to others. The banks take the money from these transactions and turn around to loan this money to others.
The appeal of these securities is that the rate of return is stable and increases if interest rates increase and can be treated like a bond as one's mortgage payment doesn't really go to the bank but rather the holder of these security.
The problem is that since 2001, the securities gurus did a bait and switch. They mixed in a bunch of crap subprime mortgages in with the good mortgages while the credit rating companies looked the other way. This helped improve the profitiability (fees and such) but didn't work out when things turned to shit.
The credit crunch happened when people stopped buying these securities. The banks then lose cash flow and can't pay creditors or interest or payroll. As other financial companies fall into this same trap, they have to call in loans and credit to pay for these things. When they do that, they don't have the money to loan out to companies or people who need it. Then it becomes a gigantic cluster fuck. This is why we (and I mean all of us) are fucked if W (rolls eyes) and his team of idiots who created this mess can't get the financial markets out of this death spiral.
Legal disclaimer: I am not a member of John McCain's economic team, nor a real economist nor a financial professional. This is only what I've been told and to the best of my understanding. Any fiscal advise you glean from this is strictly from your own head. Ie: PLEASE DON'T SUE!
I guess the thing that really must be understood about them is that unlike most investments, and even most bets, in derivatives, it is possible to lose more than you invested. Think about that, I mean, in the normal world, the very worst thing that can happen to you if you bet $100,000 or invest $100,000, is you lose it all, you lose $100,000. But if you buy $100,000 in certain kinds of derivatives, you can lose $1 million.
@TonyRamone: don't think I don't appreciate it, especially after the pounding we took 2 nights ago. I lost out in the playoff ticket lottery, so instead of spending 2 innings in line for a hot dog, and needing to strap on hip waders to get into the men's room late in the game, I'll be watching at home with a cold Negro Modelo, maybe order in some Thai food. Could be worse.
@llyn: You're in it whether you wanted/meant to be or not. Congrats, you're now one of the proud owners of AIG!
(PS: WaMu has a between-inning promotion at Wrigley, complete with the PA cheerily saying the "Whoo hoo!" tagline. Did everything I could to keep from laughing my ass off.)
(PPS: strike tag is fubar. Any update on what tags do / do not work with Commenting v2.0? And embedding pics / videos?)
One person takes out a mortgage. Simple enough. That mortgage is sold by the bank to someone else, who bundles it with a bunch of other mortgages. Still pretty clear. Now, that third person sells shares of that bundle. That is, some sarariman in Tokyo may own 1/364th of your mortgage, or some retirement fund in Omaha may own all of your mortgage and all of your neighbors' mortgages too.
This is as far as I bother trying to understand, but the effects even at this relatively simple level are pretty ominous: who owns the problem when I default on my mortgage? Well, we kind of lost track of that information, because it goes well beyond that -- the bundler who's selling shares, in the real world, happens at least a half-dozen times, so that tracing an actual mortgage from "me" to "person who owns the debt" is effectively impossible.
Now, add into the mix all the financial magic everyone else has been talking about, and start letting the homeowners default on their mortgages in large numbers (which is what's been happening). Suddenly, someone is out 3.25 quadzillion dollars on all these debts that are left hanging by people who are underwater anyway, and stopped caring about their credit rating. Only, we're not sure exactly who.
The crazy-wacky part comes in when you get companies like AIG, who are insuring this crap. So, they're offering insurance that (effectively) I'm not going to walk away from my loan based on default rates from 10 years ago, when it was just not done to walk away from a debt like that. Only, the rules changed. So they're way overcommitted on their policies, because record-busting numbers of people are hitting the "fuck it" button and moving into a tiny apartment after they realize they really can't afford the McMansion. So suddenly AIG has to pay out on way more policies than they expected, and hey, what? They didn't have that kind of cash on hand!
The basic problem is the number of people walking away. That problem was caused by dipshits in the banks giving away credit like it was condoms at an AIDS rally, to anyone who knocked on the door looking for directions to the foodbank. It was all golden because markets only go up, right? So you can totally take this interest-only mortgage and just buy off some principal later, when your house value goes up and you can refinance. It all makes perfect sense, wink-wink, nudge-nudge.
The wink/nudge that doomed us to the Big Shitpile.
http://www.portfolio.com/interactive-features/2...
The URL above illustrates graphically how the too-clever-by-half contingent laid the foundations for this debacle. Krugman posted this link on his NYT blog early this year.
Yes, it is wrong for you to have First Dude wet dreams. Have you been arguing with Log Cabiners lately?
@RML: Unicorn's peeps are trying so hard to get me to come out to NM to GOTV. Unfortunately, though, I have a mediation and possible short trial that week. Otherwise, i'd be all over that.
from politicalwire.com:
Gov. Sarah Palin's favorable/unfavorable ratings have suffered a stunning 21 point collapse in just one week, according to Research 2000 polling. Last week, 52% approved and 35% disapproved of the GOP vice presidential nominee (+17 net). This week, 42% approved and 46% disapprove (-4 net).
Earlier this week, Newsweek also saw the drop in other polling. "Over the course of a single weekend... Palin went from being the most popular White House hopeful to the least."
Political Insider: Why Palin was ultimately a bad pick for McCain.
@ Jamie - tell them I'll take your place.
Rant continues: the short-sellers figured a lot of this out, and as a reward have just seen a lot of their business taken away by the feds. This, you call market capitalism? Paulson is now running the biggest hedge fund in the universe.
I 'spose it takes the hassle out of what to wear in the morning.
…ring…ring…
HENRY PAULSON: “Dubya? It’s Hank. Yeah, I know you’re trying to watch the playoffs, this’ll just take a sec. I spoke with the insane and evil Star Chamber of foreign central banks, sovereign wealth funds, third-world oil-producing despots and hedge fund managers that actually own the smoking, gang-banged corpse of the American “free-market” financial system to let them know that they’re aahhhlllllll gonna git paid off.
Yeeesssssiiiirrreee! Big-time cashola! And in euros, too! None of that phony dollar shit.
Yep, we just need to add another trillion dollars to the national debt.
Oh and by the way WE’RE ALL COMMUNISTS NOW!”
@Orig Andrew: did you hear W's talk to the press this AM? He sounded like an old drunk stumbling around at the bus station.
My advanced Bush Derangement Syndrome prevents me from listening to anything that worthless asshole says, lest my fist goes through the TV.
re: W. I totally think he's hitting the sauce again. The NYT website had a photo from this morning where he was doing his monkey laugh again. If he's not hitting the sauce, then it's the early-onset Alzheimer's showing up.
Speaking of Alzheimer's, how about McCain's Pain with Spain? WTF?
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/09/18/mccain...
MOOSECOCK!
Disqus fucking sucks!
DOGBALLS!
Disqus fucking sucks!
DEAD MONKEY NUTS!
Disqus fucking sucks!
Disqus fucking sucks!
Disqus fucking sucks!
Disqus fucking sucks!
Disqus fucking sucks!
Disqus fucking sucks!
Disqus fucking sucks!
Moe over at Gawker has a breezy and hee-larious, yet highly educational recap here:
http://gawker.com/5051885/the-financial-crisis-...
Dude it's all cool. Comrades Bush, Bernanke & Paulson can just throw the levers on those printing presses to whip up $45 T in a New York sec. Of course, a gallon of milk is gonna cost $43,000 by this time next year courtesy hyperinflation, but whatevs.
Go team United Socialist States of AmeriKKKa! USSA! USSA!
Don't know what to say about that -- Escher is certainly a go-to artist for folks like myself, and folks like myself tend to populate the staffs of these shows. But under the circumstances, this was something of a non-obvious play.
I'll say coincidence for now, but it's an eyebrow-raiser.
Disquis is our shortwave, our taps on the pipes in prison . . .
Our Pacific Peso is not going to go tits up and reduce us to eating our children and the crippled.
Just testing.
've noticed the same thing.
i have heard lines on the daily show ripped diectly from our comments. coincidence? raised my eyebrows to hear one of my comments.
great minds alike and all that, or we really are mined?
to any band. and especially at the opera.